The Cursed Month: Putin’s Fragile Grip on Power

Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries and major commercial hubs like Wildberries warehouses are dismantling the veneer of normalcy that defined the Putin era. These attacks have moved beyond mere economic disruption; they are fueling inflation and straining a banking system already burdened by bad debt. The Kremlin’s inability to protect its own infrastructure—or even host Flag Day celebrations without fear of drone strikes—exposes a systemic rigidity that can no longer absorb such shocks.

For an aging leader, the political price of the war is reaching a breaking point. Rumors of forced bank deposit conversions and renewed mobilization only heighten the internal tension. The regime, historically built on a transactional balance of state-sanctioned greed and pervasive fear, is witnessing a shift in priorities among the elite. As the perceived costs of loyalty rise, the survival of the system depends on an increasingly exhausted leadership. When the fear of losing one’s position finally outweighs the fear of challenging the status quo, the internal cohesion of the Russian state may unravel with sudden, violent speed.