Moscow’s shadow war: Putin’s options for escalating against the UK

While Nato recently deployed 50 aircraft over the Baltic Sea to deter potential Russian aggression, the Kremlin continues to signal intent to strike the UK in retaliation for long-range drone supplies to Kyiv. Experts suggest Putin is constrained by a public that has grown indifferent to existing hostilities. To achieve the necessary shock effect, Moscow may look beyond its current playbook of cyber-attacks on retailers like Marks & Spencer or the arson of supply warehouses.

Jamie Shea, a former senior Nato official, warns that Russia has already infiltrated GRU hit squads into Britain, mirroring plots to assassinate German defence executives. While options like disabling undersea cables or harassing diplomats remain on the table, analysts argue these actions have become predictable. Katja Bego of Chatham House notes that the Kremlin feels backed into a corner, potentially forcing a move toward more radical proxies in the Middle East to target British personnel directly. Meanwhile, observers suggest that Beijing is watching these developments closely, using Russia as a surrogate to test Nato’s resolve for its own strategic ambitions in the South China Sea.