Alibaba stock drops as $10.2 billion AI bet meets market skepticism

The offering, priced at HK$112.70 per share, marks the largest primary follow-on deal by a Hong Kong-listed company this year. While the move signals Alibaba's intent to bridge the massive capital expenditure gap between Chinese tech firms and U.S. rivals like Alphabet and Microsoft, market participants remain wary. Yang Tingwu, vice general manager at Tongheng Investment, argued that the firm’s core expertise lies in e-commerce rather than advanced hardware, suggesting that significant spending may fail to overcome innovation hurdles.

Despite the share price decline, the placement drew $28 billion in orders, drawing interest from sovereign wealth funds across Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Winston Ma, an adjunct professor at NYU School of Law, noted that global investors are increasingly compartmentalizing U.S.-China tech friction, viewing Alibaba’s cloud and open-weight AI plays as distinct from restricted semiconductor hardware. The capital infusion follows a 75% plunge in quarterly net profit, largely driven by the high costs of AI development. Alibaba has already committed nearly half of its planned 380 billion yuan three-year capital expenditure, attempting to accelerate its payback timeline as demand for AI-integrated services grows.