Sweden’s Right-Wing Coalition Faces Electoral Reckoning

The governing Tidö coalition, comprised of the Moderates, Christian Democrats, and Liberals, currently trails the centre-left opposition with 45.6 percent against 52.4 percent in recent polling. While the government touts tax cuts and cooling inflation, the electorate remains fixated on a fraying social contract. The healthcare system, once a source of national pride, is buckling under a shortage of 2,400 nurses, leaving three-in-ten specialist patients waiting beyond the 90-day guarantee. Education faces similar scrutiny, with 65 percent of voters now demanding a ban on profit-driven independent schools.

Security concerns further complicate the right’s path to a second term. Although annual homicides dropped from 124 in 2020 to 84 in 2025, the brutal involvement of 52 children under the age of 15 in murder cases this year has kept gang violence at the forefront of the national psyche. The government’s reliance on the Sweden Democrats to implement stricter asylum policies—which saw applications hit their lowest level since 1985—has provided a clear policy distinction, yet the electoral math remains precarious. If the Liberal Party fails to clear the four-percent threshold, the coalition risks a collapse that could hand power to the Social Democrats, regardless of the country's current economic trajectory.