Spain’s Shift Right: A Potential Coalition and Its European Impact

The political arithmetic currently favors the People’s Party (PP), which leads with approximately 34 percent in recent surveys, followed by the Socialists at 26 percent and Vox at 18 percent. While PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo previously struggled to secure a governing majority, a combined effort with Vox could now clear the necessary threshold. These parties already share power in regional administrations like Aragon and Andalusia, though a national partnership would represent a significant escalation in influence.

Vox MEP José Buxadé has signaled that his party will demand ministerial positions proportional to their electoral strength, potentially granting them control over one-third of the cabinet. Such an outcome would drag Spain away from its recent alignment with progressive European policies. Specifically, the country’s current support for renewable energy and the European Green Deal faces potential obstruction from Vox, which advocates for the dismantling of these climate initiatives. Furthermore, a pivot in foreign policy is likely; while Sánchez has been a prominent critic of Israel and a proponent of Palestinian statehood, Vox maintains a staunchly pro-Israel stance, promising a dramatic departure from Spain’s current diplomatic posture on the international stage.